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Guide

How PropPrizm Works

Find the MLB props where the price is in your favor — priced against a sharp market, shopped across the books you use, and backed by real research.


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The idea: beat the price, not the game

Every price a sportsbook posts is a probability in disguise. -120 means "this hits about 55% of the time." You don't win long term by predicting baseball better than the book — you win by taking a better number than the one it's actually charging.

PropPrizm builds a "fair" probability for every prop by de-vigging the consensus of sharp books, then finds the book paying more than fair across your accounts. When the price beats fair, that's a positive expected value (+EV) bet, and it sorts to the top of the board.

You never bet a projection
The edge doesn't come from a model prediction — it comes from one book being out of line with the rest of the market. New to the concept? Read Expected Value, Explained.

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The EV+ board

The EV+ board is the main tool — one row per prop, and each row is a complete decision. Here's what every column tells you:

ColumnWhat it means
Player & PropWho, which market, and the line (e.g. "o6.5 K").
FairThe no-vig consensus fair value — what the sharp market really thinks, with the juice stripped out.
Price / BookThe best price for that side across your books, and where it is.
EV%How much better the price is than fair. This is the number you sort on.
L10 / Hit rateHow often the line has actually cleared recently — a reality check.
StakeA suggested bet size (Kelly-based) scaled to the size of the edge.

Example: fair value on an over is 52% (about -108), but your best price is +100 +4% EV — one book is a step behind the market, and you're taking the better number.

Filters


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Best price, every book

Tap Books in the top bar and check off the sportsbooks and exchanges you use — DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Novig, ProphetX, Kalshi and more. From then on:

Be suspicious of huge edges
A 3–8% edge against a sharp consensus is the sweet spot. A 20% edge is usually a stale line or news you haven't seen — a reason to check, not to celebrate.

4

Research that backs the bet

Click any player for the full research card — not to confirm a hunch, but to make sure a soft-looking price isn't soft for a reason:

The check that matters
If the research flatly contradicts the edge and you can't explain the gap, pass. A skipped bet costs nothing — a bet into stale news costs real money.

5

How to actually bet +EV

The whole routine, start to finish:

1
Set your books
Check off the accounts you bet at. An edge you can't take isn't an edge.
2
Sort by EV, set a floor
Rank by EV% and require 3%+. Ignore sub-1% (it's noise); double-check anything over 15%.
3
Sanity-check the number
Open the card. Hit rate, splits, arsenal, recent form — make sure the price isn't soft for a reason.
4
Take the best price, fast
Tap through to the book with the best number. Edges are perishable — don't sit on it.
5
Size it flat (or Kelly)
1–2% units, or a fraction of the suggested stake. Consistent sizing is what makes the math work.
6
Judge by CLV, not last night
+EV bets lose constantly. If you keep beating the closing line, the profit follows the math.
Want the full walkthrough with worked examples?
Read: How to Bet +EV with PropPrizm →

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Important disclaimers

Questions? Reach us at propprizm@gmail.com