How PropPrizm Works
Find the MLB props where the price is in your favor — priced against a sharp market, shopped across the books you use, and backed by real research.
The idea: beat the price, not the game
Every price a sportsbook posts is a probability in disguise. -120 means "this hits about 55% of the time." You don't win long term by predicting baseball better than the book — you win by taking a better number than the one it's actually charging.
PropPrizm builds a "fair" probability for every prop by de-vigging the consensus of sharp books, then finds the book paying more than fair across your accounts. When the price beats fair, that's a positive expected value (+EV) bet, and it sorts to the top of the board.
The EV+ board
The EV+ board is the main tool — one row per prop, and each row is a complete decision. Here's what every column tells you:
| Column | What it means |
|---|---|
| Player & Prop | Who, which market, and the line (e.g. "o6.5 K"). |
| Fair | The no-vig consensus fair value — what the sharp market really thinks, with the juice stripped out. |
| Price / Book | The best price for that side across your books, and where it is. |
| EV% | How much better the price is than fair. This is the number you sort on. |
| L10 / Hit rate | How often the line has actually cleared recently — a reality check. |
| Stake | A suggested bet size (Kelly-based) scaled to the size of the edge. |
Example: fair value on an over is 52% (about -108), but your best price is +100 +4% EV — one book is a step behind the market, and you're taking the better number.
Filters
- Your books — only price against sportsbooks you can actually bet.
- Min EV — set a floor (most bettors require 3%+) so the board only shows real edges.
- Prop type / max vig — narrow to the markets and price quality you'll accept.
- Pick'em — flip the board to price a prop as a PrizePicks / Underdog pick'em.
Best price, every book
Tap Books in the top bar and check off the sportsbooks and exchanges you use — DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Novig, ProphetX, Kalshi and more. From then on:
- Every "best price" and EV% is computed against numbers you can actually take.
- Each prop links straight to the bet at the book with the best number.
- Prices refresh about every 15 seconds, with push updates from the books in between — so the number you see is the number you can take.
Research that backs the bet
Click any player for the full research card — not to confirm a hunch, but to make sure a soft-looking price isn't soft for a reason:
- Standard line + hit rate — how often the line has actually cleared over the last 10, 20, and the season.
- Splits vs. hand — how a batter does against this pitcher's handedness, and vice versa.
- Pitch-arsenal matchup — how a batter performs against each pitch the starter actually throws (xBA, whiff, K% per pitch).
- Game logs & recent form — every recent game charted against the current line, with an injury/hot-cold read.
How to actually bet +EV
The whole routine, start to finish:
Important disclaimers
- PropPrizm is a research and pricing tool for informational and entertainment purposes — not betting advice, and not a guarantee of outcomes.
- +EV bets lose all the time. A single night, or even a losing week, tells you almost nothing — judge the process over a large sample of bets.
- Prices move. An edge shown a while ago may already be gone; the number you can take is the live one on the board.
- PropPrizm is in beta and improving through the 2026 season.
- 21+. Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Questions? Reach us at propprizm@gmail.com